German plans in WWI:
As in all other countries there were different groups and individuals within Germanies goverment, military, politics and bureaucracy that had different ideas how the war should be conducted and how an peace settlement should have looked.
Some of these plans were not very well thought, some post-war planning was done just for show, while some people kept their true intentions secret.
Another problem is that, as often with politicans, their opinion changed, not only over time, but also according to the audience they were speaking to. Very often German politicans made boasting speeches about future conquests to the German public, to motivate them to endure temporary sufferings, while statements aimed at foreign diplomats and the neutral press were much more moderate. At the same time in private conversation and correspondence considering a yet again different strategy (like allying with France & Russia against England).
The German goverment followed no clear chain of command. During Bismarks times it worked because the emperor and the chancellor worked hand in hand and a strong patriotic sentiment compelled the Reichstag to follow the goverments lead. But with Wilhelm II coming to power this system collapsed. Wilhelm was unwilling to follow he lead of any chancellor, but also lacked the understanding and strength to determinate the Empires policy himself.
During WWI there were the following main players:
The Clever Imperialists (Admiral Tirpitz, the Navy High Command, Deutsche Vaterlandspartei)
The Insane Imperialists (Alldeutscher Verband, Claß)
The Realists (Chancellor von Bethmann-Hollweg, Foreign Secretary von Kühlmann)
The 3th OHL (von Hindenburg, Luddendorf)
The Reichstag (split in the traditionally pro-goverment Kartell (National-Liberal & Conservatives) and the former opposition, consisting of Social Democrats, Fortschrittspartei & Zentrum)
The change of public opinion over the course of the war roughly mirrors the change of the Reichstags stance, but was always more diverse and often more radical (both, in its inital enthusiasm and its later war weariness).
Wilhelm II was very unsteady in his opinions, personally leaning toward the Imperialists but often influenced by the Realists and the OHL.
All later Chancellors were puppets of the OHL, except Prince Max von Baden, who based his goverment on the Reichstag.
The positions, plans and strength of many of them changed over the course of the war, compliciating the matter further.
The „standard“ Central Powers victory scenario does basically take all plans and claims ever made by any of this parties and combines them.
I will try to show what plans the different groups had, how they evolved over time and which plans were most likely to influence an actual peace settlement at any given time.
The following is necessarily an simplification, but as I hope still helpful.
The group that dominates todays image of Imperial Germany are the Imperialists (sometimes also called Annexionists, as they supported larger annexations).
They can be roughly divided into two groups:
What I would call the Insane Imperialists had grandious and mostly totally impractical plans. Common ideas range from „reconquering“ all territories that were once part of the Holly Roman Empire (including Switzerland and large parts of Austro-Hungary) to pre-nazi dreams of „germanizing“ Russia. They had little direct influence on the German leadership (although Wilhelm II was no stranger to mad political schemes himself) but campaigned for their ideas through publications and nationalist pressure groups.
As their ideas had little connection to reality they had no reason to adapt them over the course of the war.
The Clever Imperialist (as I choose to name them) differed from their more extravagant brothers in that their demands were the logical consequence of a certain worldview.
They regarded the war as a conflict between the „young“ economic superpower of Germany and the older, descending economic superpower England (as it was normally called back then). England had resorted to its traditional manipulative strategy and used Russia and Germanies traditional archenemy France as tools.
To ascend to its rightful place as leading superpower of the world and to prevent another „encirclement attack“ Germany had to become even stronger compared to the other large European nations.
The war was considered as a by nature mercieless struggle, were any weakness could be fatal. Therefore an all out war and a harsh treatment of the defeated were demanded.
Unlike the dreamers the Clever Imperialists realized that the vast areas of Eastern Europe or West Africa might look impressive on maps but were of little economic value. Instead they looked to the west. Their main goals were:
* The French Area of Brie-Longwy (the Ruhr industry was dependand on its rich iron deposites, that were mostly exported to Germany pre war, as France itself had only a very small steel industry)
* Belgium, which was to be either directly annexed or turned into a satelliet. Belgium was one of the most industrialized nations of the world and would have strengthened Germanies economy.
* Trade pacts with the smaller European nations and if possible France, favourable to Germany (in most cases a free trade zone would be sufficent to ensure German economic dominance).
* Control over the eastern half of the French Chanel Coast. This served several purposes: To hurt the french economy, to prevent further British landings there (making it nearly impossible for them to intervene in a German-French conflict in time) and to serve as a staging area in future conflicts against France.
Gains in Africa and Eastern Europe were also welcome, but of secondary importance. In the earlier stage of the war, when Russia was almost universially overrated (France offically requested 300 000 Russian soldiers for the western front), Admiral Tirpitz, the influential chief of the navy advocated a seperate withe peace with Russia, so that all forces could be concentrated in the west..
As they saw England as the main enemy, they tried to stir up all kinds of oppressed and disgruntled people (Irish, Boers, Afghans, Indians) against them. This strategy was not very successful and when they tried to extend it to the United States enemies (Zimmermann Telegram) it backfired heavily.
During the first months of the war (when it was expected to be over by christmas) almost all of Germany (even ussally critical minds like Erzberger) was in a nationlist frenzy and supportive of the imperialists but later other fractions emerged.
The Realists were initally the most influential, as the Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg was on of them. He is also a good example for their mindset. He was far from being an idealistic peacenic. He had conservative views, instrumentalised patriotic sentiments and tried to boost his image by regulary giving speeches in uniform (although he was not a professional soldier).
But he was also far from being an stubborn nationalist, even reading french poetry in the middle of the war.
He had realized two things:
* As Germany had no direct leverage against England (even when wining in France) a peace with England had either to be a compromise that allowed them to maintain face or forced upon them through economic pressure by the USA.
* A to hars peace would plant the seed of the next war.
Therefor B-H pushed for moderation, in regard of both the conduct of the war (against unrestricted submarine warface) and German demands. At the same time he had to put up the aggressive, patriotic face as the emperor (and initally the public) demanded and was engaged in an almost constan behind the scenes powerstruggle with the military leadership.
He tried a double strategy: aggressive speeches for the homefront while emphazising Germanies love for peace and „mild demands“ to neutral diplomats and the international press. It didn't really work.
Moderates & Liberals were behind most of the plans for big colonial conquests. Reasons were, that they expected them to be more acceptable for the Entente than demands of European territory and that they tried to paint the Germans as the „good guys“ internationally (the Brits and French made a lot of noise about Germans oppersing the smaller European countries but weren't in any position to call them names for wanting a big colonial empire).
In Europe they wanted some gains of strategic territory (Briey, some parts of Poland), but only if they were possible and prefered economic domminace (maybe in form of a customs union) to direct conquest.
They hoped for a peace conference where they could barter for some colonies in exchange for an withdrawal from France.
The 2nd OHL lead by Falkenhayn was radical aggressive as far as the conduct of the war was concerned, but didn't really have a own politcal agenda. Falkenhayn was even somewhat a moderate personal (fighting the French but not demonising/hating them) and prevented some massacers in the Ottoman Empire.
The 3th OHL (Hindenburg&Luddendorf) on the other hand had politcal designs: They had previously commanded the Eastern Front so it is not a surprise that their focus lay on the east. Hindeburg was a member of the rural Prussian aristocracy and Luddenorf came from a commoner family that had addoped the aristocracies worldview and lifestyle. Their basic idea was to turn much of eastern europe into a big agricultural estate, where german junkers and local nobles ruled bevenolently over the uneducated peasantry. They later expected the reds to win in Russia and advocated pushing as far inland as possible to create a buffer against them.
Their plans concerning the west were more fuzzy but only a „victorious peace“ seemed acceptable.
Based on the above I did a few maps for potential alternative outcomes of WWI.
They were a relativly quick project, so I hope you excuse slight inaccuracies.
Gold is Imperial, Green Republican or Parliamentary and Red Soviet Russia.
1: Early Entente Victory + Germany must perish!
-Russians take East Prussia in 1914, while the German Right Wing is cut of and destroyed by the French. Result is a crushing Entente victory in early 1915.
-As the UK contributed little to the victory it has little only a limited influence on the peace terms and is placated with colonies
-Many nations (Italy, Japan, turkey) never joined the war.
-National self-determination never became an Entente war aim.
-Plan of the French General Staff to dissolve Germany implemented.
-Large Russian conquests
-Prussia, Austrai and Hungria are preserved as multi-ethnic states, as Russia fears that smaller nation states might spark unrest among its own minorities and France sees them as a block against a German rebirth.
-France annexed Belgium and Luxemburg (the French General Staff contemplated this OTL)
-As the Entente has allready decided to be evil they go along with it and carve up the Portugese colonies
-Turkey is probably in for an other round of European demands in the near future.
Not likely, as French have little chance beating the Germans in 1914 (best bet might be the German OHL shareing the French opinion that reserve troops are worthless shit) and the UK is likely to use its economic power to pressure for clemency after an early victory.
2: Late victory, but Russia still a full ally.
-Russia does slightly better and avoids the revolution. The war ends around 1917.
-Russia is the one nation that has its most important claim (Constantinopel) against the Ottomans. So they are treated even worse than OTL and this time the Entente is willing to fight it through against Atatürk.
-Russia supports French desires for the Left Bank of the Rhine and France supports Russias claims on East Prussia and Galicia.
-All of S-H is returned to Danemark
-Hannover is restored as a sub-state of germany to break the Prussian dominance of the Bundesrat.
-Poland is granted autonomy inside Russia
-A rump A-H survives (most Entente goverments supported this until very late in the war)
3: Conditional German Surrender in 1916 + Machiavellist Britain
-Germany suffers worse military setbacks in 1916 and decides to sue for peace (but is still able to prolong the war by ~ a year)
-Britain tries to preserve Germany as a continental power as a counterweight to Russia and France. Germany loses only A-L in Europe. To allow the German goverment to return from Versailles with a minor diplomatic success, Central Kamerun remains German.
-For similar reasons (and to keep Russia out of the mediterrane) an rump Ottoman Empire is kept alive.
-Italy is still strong in 1916 (and groomed by Britain to balance French influence in the mediterrane) so it gets most of its claims.
-Japan and the UK use Russias faltering strength to increase their influence in China
-A-H carve-up mostly for a change, but reflecting better treatment of Hungary and Austria as an result of an earlier peace. (Bohemia-Galicia is my weired idea). Thinking it over A-H is more likely to survive under the conditions outline above, but the map is done.
4: Early German Victory - Septemberprogram
-The Schlieffen-Plan succeeds and the war is over by Christmas. The German public is euphoric and demands large annexations but terms still have to be acceptable to the British and Russians (they can't really win anymore but still fight on for a few years).
-German demands follow roughly the Septemberprogram of 1914.
-As in 1) most nations aren't in the war by now (we could speculate about an opportunistic Italian attack on France but I decided to keep that out).
-A-H is still relativly healthy by now and manages to get Poland and integrate it as a third core nation.
-Belgium is under German occupation for undefined time
-Portugal gets Madagaskar in exchange for Angola
-No Easter Rising, so Home Rule works as intended
5: Peace Conference New Years Day 1917 + Bethmann-Hollweg wins the powerstruggle
-Reichskanzler Bethmann-Hollweg manages to oust Admiral Tirpitz earlier and sidetrack Luddendorf to an command in the East. Using Hindenburg as a figurehead he gains full control over German politics and military.
-Unrestricted Submarine Warface is never tried (and of course no telegram to Mexico). As a result the USA stay neutral.
-In 1916 Germany launches a well orchestrated campaign, calling for an amrestice and a peace conference. The fall of Romenia, unrest in the French army and US economic pressure force the Entente to accept.
-As a result of the conference (in Washington to make Wilson look good) Germany withdraws from all occupied territories in exchange for smaller border corrections in Europe and French Congo & Gabun. Poland and finnland are recognized as independent states. Germany gets military and railroad control over the Belgian Congo (in exchange for symbolic payments) to link its colonies.
-More important is, that along with the League of Nations and European Economic Community, dominated by Germany is created. Some nations are forced to join, other tempted with favourable conditions (and in the case of Poland: West-Galicia; ailing A-H is willing to do almost everythink for an end of the war and German economic aid).
-Turkey gets Lybia as a consolation price, Japan is told to fuck-off.
This are pretty much B-H's actual plans at the time.
Also included some postwar developments:
-The peace is nowhere really popular, but the backslash is worst in Britain. There is a crackdown against suspected German symphatisisers like the Irish, the Boers and the INC.
-Not to look completly useless the German Navy organizes an expedition that takes posession of Spitzbergen. The Army laughs even harder.
6: Late Bethmann-Hollweg / Solft / Wilson solution: A-L for colonies
-Same as above but Entente decides to continue the war and USA resolves to continue supplying them.
-Russian Revolution as OTL, but B-H decides to settle for a soft peace, to free up troops quicker and demonstrate Germanies desire for peace. (To calm the right, the Polish puppet goverment „agrees“ to cede some territory.)
-Troops from the East send Italy to the ropes, but B-H does not dare an all out offensive against France.
-With the people starving and A-H near the breaking point, the German goverment plays its last card: They offer to trade A-L (+ some concessions by its allies) for African colonies.
-When the next Entente offensive is a complete failure due to French army mutinies they are forced to agree.
-Belgium and Poland are free of German influence now
-Armenians and Arabs are granted autonomy in the Ottoman Empire
-Middle East still part of O-E but administrated by the UK
-Soviet Russia looms on the horizon as the new big bad.
7: The Tirpitz Plan – Seperate Peace in the East
-In 1916 there were secret negotiations between Germany, Russia and Japan about a seperate peace.
Germany offered a withe peace to russia and Tshingtau + some islands to Japan. It was the brainchild of Admiral Tirpitz who wanted his back free for an allout war for world domination with the western Entente. ITTL it works.
-Also as Tirpitz demanded Germany has begun unrestricted submarine warface in 1915. The USA cries murder and declares war, but Wilson decides not to send larger forces to the Europan meat-grinder before the 1916 election. Instead the US test their strength by establishing an security zone in Northern Mexico.
-American forces come to late, as France is overrun in the spring of 1917. As German demands are inacceptable the UK and the French colonies fight on.
-This frees German ressources for increased submarine production and domestic needs. Food imports from Russia also help.
-The war drags on until 1920, as German Expeditionary Forces slowly push the Entente out of the Middle East. In the end the UK is forced to give in or face total economic collapse.
-Germany annexes Belgium and North East France and creates a large African Colonial Empire
-The Next Arms Race starts directly after the war.
8: The Third OHL – Priority on the East & Stalemat in the West
-Might have happend, if Germany had been in a better shape in 1918 and fought the Western allies to a stalemat.
-Germany withdraws from Belgium & France for colonial concessions.
-Neutral Buffer in Venice
-Serbia eradicted and Montenegro cut of from the sea as per Austrians most aggressive considerations
-Poles screwed over
-Soviets (Luddendorf expected their victory) cut of from the Baltic and Black Sea (German coloured thing in Russia is not annexed but permanently German occupied). This were more or less the OHLs plans. Brest-Litovsk was allready a compromise with the moderates.
-Ottomans loose the Holy Land but are compensated with Russian territory.
9: Wilsons Peace – Self Determination for everybody
-Germany overs a armestice as soon as Wilson proclaims the 14 points. Wilson blackmails Entente to accept. Not really realistic more to show his plans.
-Arab nations are put on the fast track to independence.
-German colonies consolidated into one big colony. Prevents tensions arrising by Germans meddling everywhere.
-Kerenski saved by western intervention
-Wilsonian Armenia
-Assyrian State
-Borders in Europa closer to ethnic distribution.
10: Pope or Socialists – late war negotiations
-There were several attemps (by the Pope, the Socialist International, ...) to negotiate a peace without victor or defeated.
-Germany gives up E-L for the Congo and some Polish territory.
-Poland (the A-Hs actually offered Galicia if Germany would go for negotiations, toward the end of the war) and Lithuania are economically dependent on Germany and serve as a buffer toward Russia.
-trilateral solution in Austria
-Serbia and Greece paid of with parts of Albania.
-Ottomans loose the levante but keep Mesopotamia
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